...make a run for governor on a third party ticket—but I’ll have to see it to believe it. Given that his chances of election are very slight unless the feds indict both Blagojevich and Topinka, what effect will the Meeks candidacy have? Conventional wisdom has said that by taking black votes from Blagojevich he will elect Topinka—but a recent poll has shown that he will take a good many votes from Topinka, in that he will draw from the normal socially conservative base that usually goes to Republican candidates (but now will not because of Topinka’s socially liberal stance). So the questions are, if Meeks does indeed run for governor, will he (a) elect Topinka, (b) draw equally from Blagojevich and Topinka but Blagojevich will be reelected; , (c) draw more from Topinka but still elect Blagojevich, (d) elect himself in a stunning upset. Some people are complaining that they can’t get into the Reader’s Comments on this blog. If not, comment on thomasfroeser@sbcglobal.net
Is it to whimpy to say it would be a wash? Maybe slightly more from Blagojevich than Topinka.
ReplyDeleteMeeks represents a south side area that would vote overwhelmingly for Blago. By throwing his hat into the mix, he'll steal a solid number of south side votes (think of the thousands of followers of his church + affilites) from the Governor. However, if he stayed out of the race and preached to his followers to vote against Blago, then Topinka's implicit losses are magnified greatly, should Meeks run.
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