Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Russ Stewart-Roeser Predictions for Nov. 2, 2010.


           Veteran political analyst Russ Stewart has been running electoral predictions for a long time but beginning a few years ago we started matching ours. Russ is usually right but I suspect this  time I may top him in several instances.  He was on my show Sunday with these to which I added my guestimates.   The only reason why I don’t carry his analysis with my comments tacked on here is that I haven’t yet got the complete hang of my new computer—but I’ve summarized his and my findings here.
        U. S. Senate (Illinois).   Stewart picks Mark Kirk.  He will lose Cook by 375,000 and prevail elsewhere by 390,000—a 15,000 vote win.  Roeser picks Mark Kirk. He thinks the margin will be significantly bigger than Stewart estimates.
        Illinois Governor.   Stewart picks Bill Brady. “He will replicate Judy Baar Topinka’s 2006 vote of 1,369,315 and add another 150,000 from his Downstate base.” Roeser picks Bill Brady.  He thinks Brady will win much more heavily.
       Treasurer and Comptroller.   Stewart picks Republicans Dan Rutherford (Treasurer) and Judy Baar Topinka (Comptroller), adding that Topinka will have “the most votes of any statewide Republican candidate.”. Roeser agrees that both will win, hopes Stewart is wrong on Topinka’s vote totals and while voting for Rutherford will mark a protest anti-Topinka vote  for highly qualified Libertarian Comptroller candidate Julie Fox, a CPA.
      U. S. Senate Races Nationally.  Stewart sees Republicans gaining 9 seats making  the Senate divided 50-50 with Vice President Biden breaking the tie.  Roeser sees the Republican margin greater than that with victories in New Hampshire, Missouri, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky,  Arkansas, Colorado, Indiana, Nevada, North Dakota, Illinois, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Washington,  California, Wisconsin and Delaware with the stunning upset victory of Christine O’Donnell. 
       U. S. House Races Nationally.  Stewart sees Republicans gaining 50 seats and taking control.  Roeser sees
the gain at 70 seats.   
In Illinois Stewart predicts GOP wins in the 11th with Kinzinger; the 14th with Hultgren; and the 17thwith Schilling besides holding the 10th with Dold.  Roeser sees all of  the abovementioned winning plus Joe Walsh (8th) over Bean and Joel Pollak (9th) over Schakowsky in a big upset. 
     Illinois Legislature.  Stewart sees the next Senate divided 32-27 Democratic.  Roeser forecasts modest Republican takeover including victory of Cedra Crenshaw over Dem A.J. Wilhelmi, Brian Doherty over Mulroe with Crenshaw’s victory a national news story moving her front and center as a brilliant African American conservative leader. This will presage a revolution among Senate GOP rank and file,  dumping the GOP leader, Christine Radogno who a few days before election saw the inevitability of an income tax increase  for Sen.  Kirk Dillard.
        In the state House, Stewart sees Mike Madigan’s Dem margin greatly reduced with Republicans gaining 9 seats.   Roeser prognosticates a Republican takeover of the House and the ascension of Speaker Tom Cross. 
         Cook County Races.  Stewart sees Democrat Toni Preckwinkle winning county board presidency.  Roeser predicts big upset with Republican Roger Keats becoming first GOP board president since Dick Ogilvie.  For Assessor, Stewart predicts Democrat Joe Berrios defeating Independent Forrest Claypool.  Roeser agrees.  For Board of Review, Stewart sees GOPer Dan Patlak, the Wheeling township assessor defeating Dem Brendan Houlihan.  Roeser agrees.
                  

1 comment:

  1. Roeser sees the Republican margin greater than that with victories in New Hampshire, Missouri, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky, Arkansas, Colorado, Indiana, Nevada, North Dakota, Illinois, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Washington, California, Wisconsin and Delaware

    From your lips to God's ear!

    But you're risking some cred there.

    ReplyDelete