Friday, October 1, 2010

Personal Aside: Republicans Shouldn’t Count Their Chickens on Illinois Governorship…O Come O Come Emanuel and Save Poor Chicago!

               Scott Lee Cohen’s Numbers Potentially Endanger Brady.
        Once again the astute Capitol Fax shows us something the general media don’t.  Most polls which show Bill Brady comfortably ahead of Pat Quinn haven’t included the numbers Scott Lee Cohen has been getting.  I   worry that when Illinoisans committed to Cohen go to the polls and stand there before the screen, they’ll ask themselves whether Cohen can really win.  He really can’t.  With that as a conclusion, a good chunk of Cohen voters will plug for Quinn: hence the race is much closer than it appears. The Tribune has Brady leading Quinn by 5—37 to 32 but Cohen getting 4 and Green candidate Whitney getting 2 (along with the Libertarian candidate).    Rasmussen has never included Cohen in its surveys. 
       Not including Cohen may well have been Quinn’s biggest political mistake.  It’s very possible that most of the Cohen supporters are black since there has been great dissatisfaction in that community because Quinn passed up Rep. Art Turner who ran second to  Cohen and picked Sheila Simon for lieutenant governor instead.  Quinn probably thought he’d get downstate votes with Simon but, hey, she lost in her hometown (Carbondale) mayoralty race and is about as magnetic statewide as a lead nail.  
        So down deep Cohen voters aren’t Republican in the slightest. The more likely poll could be CNN/TIME which gives Brady only a two point lead—40 to 38 with Cohen getting 14% .  Capitol Fax averages out the  polls that include Cohen shows Brady with a +4 over Quinn—but Cohen having a bank of 14 points amounts to more than enough points which, if given to Quinn, notches the contest for Quinn.  
      Just something to think about.  
                  O Come O Come Emanuel and Save Poor Chicago!
      The way the White House ran the drum-beat yesterday….tomorrow the President will make an announcement involving Emanuel in the Blue Room…even ticked off Lynn Sweet, the stenographer for The Squid. 
       It’s so painfully cumbersome. Do they think that Chicagoans will greet this little Messiah with palm leaves spread before him and his donkey?  You know what happened to the last Messiah who was greeted that way by residents of a big city.  Big Business is mad at him because it thinks he was behind the strategy that spent almost a trillion bucks with no dent in the unemployment rolls…in fact a one-point hike. They think he was behind ObamaCare and cut the deals to get it passed (partially true).   They think he was urging cap and trade.  The public unions think he’s not supportive (that’s true).  And the Jews? 
       The Jews—at least the observant ones—think Rahm’s a slippery little traitor to Judaism, urging Obama to support the Palestinians and Muslims. Not true. Not in the slightest.  The Jew who did that was David Axelrod who’s eyes grow misty because he believes he’s found the first true liberal idealist.  Then there’s the Professional Left as Gibbs calls them…the Daily Kos readers who despise Emanuel because they believe he was just a dirty little ultra-pragmatist. 
        Lots of luck on your Listening Tour, Rahm as you return to save poor Chicago.

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