Thursday, August 10, 2006

The Green Report: 2006 Democratic-Republican Primary Vote Analysis.


Statewide Democratic Vote.

Gov. Blagojevich was contested by former alderman Edwin Eisendrath who never seemed to have sufficient fire in the belly to politically or financially defeat the governor in the primary. Democratic history: In 1936, Herman Bundeson, Chicago’s health commissioner, supported by the Kelly-Nash Chicago machine took on incumbent Democratic governor Henry Horner and Bundeson lost. In 1976 Illinois Secretary of State Mike Howlett backed by Richard J. Daley’s Chicago Democratic machine defeated incumbent Democrat Dan Walker. Eisendrath campaigned leisurely but ws still able to receive over 200,000 Democratic votes and 30 percent of the Democratic gubernatorial vote.

Chicago Democratic Vote.

Chicago was the only voting region in Illinois that gave Blagojevich over 70 percent of its vote—almost giving him 80 percent due largely to the governor’s strength in the African American community. Blagojevich’s top twelve wards were African American and 17 of his best twenty margin wards were predominantly black (the other three wards were 13th , Mike Madigan, 23rd Bill Lipinski and 11th John Daley. In sixteen black wards Blagojevich received at least 90 percent of the vote. The threat of State Sen. James Meeks, therefore, had potential viability. Eisendrath carried one ward—the 43rd , the ward he represented as alderman. In only six other wards did he keep Blagojevich under 60 percent: 42nd and 43rd , two lakefront wards; 19th far southwest side and the far northwest side former home area of Paul Vallas. 41st , the far north side with a substantial Jewish population , 50th and the 32nd a gentrifying near-northwest side ward. Green says Blagoevich needs to shore up his Jewish, lakefront and ethnic support for November.

Incidentally, the 33rd, home of Alderman Dick Mell, Blagojevich’s father-in-law and outspoken foe, gave Blagojevich his biggest non-African American percentage wins, 78.8 percent.

Suburban Democratic Vote: 30 Townships.

Blagojevich carried 27 of thirty suburban Cook townships, running best in African American sectors. Only two townships gave the Governor 10,000+ victory margins—Thornton and Proviso. But by the percentages the vote scenario is the same: Blagojevich got 70 percent plus votes in seven townships, five of which are in the racially changing south suburbs while the other two are in western townships Proviso and Cicero.

Eisendrath’s suburban 30 performance was far better than his Chicago results. He carried three townships—New Trier, Northfield and River Forest and he kept the governor under 60 percent in fourteen other townships such as the liberal Evanston and Oak Park and the large northwest townships Wheeling and Maine. One township that could scare Blagojevich for November was Niles where he won only 54.2 percent of the vote.

Collar County Democratic Vote.

The five collar counties all supported Blagojevich by almost the same percentages: Kane by 67.7 percent and Lake was his worst with 6 1.7 percent. Nevertheless nearly 36 percent went for Eisendrath. In 2002 Paul Vallas took the collars against Blagojevich. Since Eisendrath did very little to win over Democrats, in Green’s view the vote was far more anti-Blagojevich than pro-Eisendrath. Which would mean that Blagojevich will be spending more time in the collars wooing independents and dissident Democrats.

Downstate Democratic: 96 Counties.

The governor did better downstate than he did in suburban Chicagoland, says Green. He won 89 counties and got solid southern Illinois support—especially south of I-70. Southwestern counties St. Clair and Madison were his best counties. Eight counties gave him 80 percent of their vote and all of them were located in the far southern and southwestern part of the state. Eisendrath won seven counties—many of them sparsely settled in southeastern Illinois. Eisendrath narrowly won Champaign county. His best win was Shelby county which gave him 60 percent of the vote, why no one can seem to figure out.

[For complete details contact e-mail or fax (312) 341-4325. Tomorrow the Democratic State Treasurer primary.]

No comments:

Post a Comment